iPhone 18 Rumors: What a 2027 Base Model Release Means for Shoppers and Carriers

Every summer, as September (aka iPhone season) nears, the rumor mill heats up. This year is no exception. Will Apple finally release an iPhone fold? Will Siri get an overhaul? Will prices increase? According to the grapevine: likely yes, yes, and yes. But of all the iPhone 18 rumors swirling right now, the one we're most focused on at Navi is this: The base iPhone 18 may not arrive until next year. That’s right, Apple may split the iPhone 18 launch into two phases — releasing the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and its first foldable iPhone in September 2026, while pushing the iPhone 18 base model to sometime in early 2027, possibly in March alongside the iPhone 18e and perhaps 2nd-generation iPhone Air.

Navi iPhone shopping data suggests that a delayed launch for the iPhone 18 base model could have significant implications for both consumers and carriers. 

Key Data

• 23% of holiday iPhone 17 shopping interest on Navi was for the base model iPhone 17 during last year’s holiday season (November 1 to December 24, 2025), suggesting shoppers will have to adjust their purchase timeline or product selection if the iPhone 18 base model doesn’t launch until 2027.
• 51% of base model iPhone 17 shoppers on Navi had trade-in devices five years old or older, compared to just 36% of Pro model shoppers from September 2025 to May 2026, suggesting a forced upgrade to a Pro model will be a tougher sell for iPhone 18 base model shoppers unless carriers run any-phone, any-condition trade-in promotions or no-trade offers.
• Among the big three carriers (AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon), T-Mobile’s prior iPhone holiday promotional strategy would be the most impacted by a delayed release of the iPhone 18 based on Navi data showing T-Mobile’s 2025 holiday iPhone interest skewed most heavily toward the base model, a direct result of a promotional structure offering four free base model iPhones on a $100/month plan ($25 per line on a four-line account).

What a Delayed iPhone 18 Base Model Means for Shoppers

For anyone eyeing an iPhone 18 Pro or Pro Max, a split launch is essentially a non-issue. The most eager buyers will pre-order as usual in September; others will wait for Black Friday phone deals and holiday promotions to make their move.

But for everyone else (a substantial share of iPhone shoppers), a 2027 base model release date is a big deal. The base model iPhone 17 accounted for 23% of iPhone interest on Navi during the 2025 holiday season. If history repeats itself, that suggests that a significant number of iPhone shoppers will be facing a real decision this fall:

1. Wait. Hold off on a new phone purchase until some yet-to-be-determined point in 2027.
2. Stretch. Get upsold to a more expensive iPhone 18 Pro or Pro Max — potentially at a higher price than previous years, with some rumors pointing to a $100–$200 price increase due to rising chip costs.
3. Settle. Buy last year's iPhone 17 base model rather than wait or pay more.

Whatever consumers decide, it’ll require compromise. And the right choice will depend largely on how urgently they need a new phone and how price-sensitive they are.

One more consideration for shoppers: Navi data from the iPhone 17 series launch through May 2026 shows that base model iPhone buyers tend to bring older trade-ins to the table. More than half (51%) of base-model shoppers traded in devices five years old or older, compared to just 36% of Pro shoppers. Older devices carry lower trade-in values, which means the finances of upgrading to a Pro get harder, not easier, for the shoppers who'd need the most incentive to do so—unless, that is, carriers run any-phone, any-condition trade-in offers or no-trade-required offers on Pro models, the economics of which are less favorable from a business perspective.

What a Delayed iPhone 18 Base Model Means for Carriers

Carriers count on the base model to drive volume, particularly among value-conscious, entry-level switchers. With a 23% iPhone 17 base model share of interest during the 2025 holiday season, the absence of an iPhone 18 base model during Black Friday and the holidays in 2026 creates a challenge carriers have never before had to navigate.

As Navi sees it, carriers have two options:

Option 1: Convince Base Model iPhone 18 Shoppers to Upgrade to the iPhone 18 Pro

This is the most obvious play — but it has its challenges. Fully subsidizing a Pro model instead of a base model is significantly more expensive for the carrier. When available, iPhone Pro On Us deals typically require premium service plans, but base-model shoppers tend to favor entry-level plans. This creates a mismatch: to move base-model iPhone 18 shoppers to an iPhone 18 Pro, carriers may have to eat the subsidy cost on cheaper plans, reducing or eliminating the margin benefit of the promotion.

The trade-in problem compounds this further. With more than half of base-model shoppers bringing in devices five years old or older, the trade-in value of those devices is lower than what carriers typically accept when promoting the Pro, further reducing the margin benefit of the promotion.

Option 2: Convince Base Model iPhone 18 Shoppers that the iPhone 17 Is Still Worth It

The alternative is leaning into last year's model. But there's a psychological hurdle: during a much-hyped new iPhone 18 launch cycle, positioning the iPhone 17 base model as the headline deal is a tough sell — especially if a competitor is running iPhone 18 Pro promotions. Any carrier running an iPhone 18 Pro "On Us" promotion will make a competing iPhone 17 promotion look less attractive by comparison.

Another possible barrier to success: Depending on demand, iPhone 17 base model inventory could also be a limiting factor. 

Which Carriers’ Previous Holiday Promotional Strategies Would Be Most Impacted?

Based on our analysis of last year’s iPhone promotions from the Big Three (AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon), not all carriers' past promotional strategies would hold up equally if the iPhone 18 base model release date is delayed until 2027. Navi data on holiday iPhone interest among entry-level switchers from 2025 suggests T-Mobile’s go-to holiday promotion would require the biggest overhaul.

For years, T-Mobile has anchored its holiday iPhone strategy around base-model deals, most notably, its "four for $100" offer that has run since 2022: four free base-model iPhones with a monthly plan fee of $100 ($25 per month, per line). With T-Mobile’s previous holiday promotions skewing most heavily toward the base model, the possibility of a delayed iPhone 18 base model release calls their proven playbook into question.

AT&T, on the other hand, consistently offered stronger deals on the iPhone 17 Pro throughout the 2025 holiday season, resulting in the lowest base model mix among the three major carriers during that time period. As a result, AT&T’s promotional strategy from last year would be better positioned for an iPhone 18 Pro-heavy launch cycle.

Verizon’s previous holiday promotional strategy sits somewhere in the middle. Verizon kicked off the 2025 Black Friday season with a promotion offering four free iPhone 17 base models with no trade required on their entry-level Unlimited Welcome plan, but the carrier pivoted in early December to a more lucrative Pro deal with a more expensive plan requirement (Unlimited Plus or Unlimited Ultimate). That split-season strategy left them with a more balanced mix of base model iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro shoppers.

The Bottom Line

Wait, stretch, or settle? That’s the question shoppers will need to ask themselves heading into iPhone season and the holidays if the iPhone 18 base model’s release gets pushed to 2027. Meanwhile, carriers can’t afford to wait to see which way the consumer wind blows to plan their promotions and go-to-market strategy. Whatever happens, Navi will be tracking all the best iPhone 18 deals, explaining the carrier promotions, and reporting on shopping trends as they come into focus. 

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Frequently Asked Questions 

When will the iPhone 18 base model be released?

According to the latest iPhone rumors, Apple may delay the iPhone 18 base model until early 2027, possibly March, while releasing the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and an iPhone foldable model in September 2026.

Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost more than last year's Pro?

Rumors suggest the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max could carry a $100–$200 price increase over previous models, driven by rising chip costs.

Should I wait for the iPhone 18 base model or buy now?

If you need a phone this fall and don't want to pay iPhone 18 Pro prices, the iPhone 17 base model will likely be available through carriers with solid promotional pricing while supplies last. If you can wait, a 2027 base model release could bring strong launch deals.

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